Publications

Are On-Line Currencies Virtual Banknotes?
Stephen F. Quinn and William Roberds
This article examines the likely success or failure of on-line currencies by means of a historical analogy. The discussion compares the introduction of on-line currencies to the debut of the bearer banknote, the direct predecessor to modern currency, in London in the late 1600s.

Forecast Evaluation with Cross-Sectional Data: The Blue Chip Surveys
Andy Bauer, Robert A. Eisenbeis, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
If economic forecasts are to be used for decision making, then being able to evaluate their accuracy is essential. Assessing accuracy using single variables from a forecast is acceptable as a first pass, but this approach has inherent problems. This article addresses some of these problems by evaluating and comparing the general accuracy of a set of multivariate forecasts over time.

Emotion and Financial Markets
Lucy F. Ackert, Bryan K. Church, and Richard Deaves
The authors of this article argue that emotion has important, and possibly beneficial, influences on financial behavior. After defining the term emotion and describing how emotions can be categorized, the authors consider how emotions influence human behavior.

Inflation Persistence: How Much Can We Explain?
Pau Rabanal and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez
This article explores whether adding sticky wages to the baseline sticky-price model solves the persistence-of-inflation problem when plausible durations of price and wage contracts are assumed.