Underlying Inflation Dashboard
Monetary policymakers have historically used or monitored various measures of underlying inflation to gain context about longer-term trends. The Underlying Inflation Dashboard is a tool that provides information about these measures. The user can get a broader characterization of retail price pressures from this dashboard than by monitoring movements in core PCE alone.
Measure is within target range (-/+0.25 from target)
Measure is between 0.25 and 0.50 ppt below target
Measure is more than 0.50 ppt below target
Measure is between 0.25 and 0.50 ppt above target
Measure is more than 0.50 ppt above target
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Frequently Asked Questions
Why are underlying inflation measures helpful?
Measures of underlying inflation are useful in separating inflation signal from relative price noise, and in such a way that they are good predictors of future inflation. These measures also help gauge price pressures in the economy by relating the position of a given alternative price statistic to its price-stability target. This is why they are able to track the trend in overall inflation so well.
How are the price-stability targets for each underlying inflation measure estimated?
The price-stability targets are based on the relationship of their corresponding price statistics to core PCE inflation. Admittedly, the choice for each measure's price stability target is somewhat arbitrary, but given the primacy of core PCE inflation in the communications of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Federal Reserve, we chose to express each measure's target as 2 percent plus its average difference with core PCE inflation over the past decade. For example, the growth rate in the core CPI over the past 10 years is 30 basis points higher than that of the core PCE, yielding a price stability target of 2.3 percent.
How should I read the Underlying Inflation Dashboard?
The first section of the table shows the 12-month growth rate of each underlying inflation measure. The most current data are compared to the value of a measure from one year prior. Each measure is color-coded (in 25-basis-point increments) relative to its price stability target. The section next to it shows the average differences between each measure of underlying inflation and core PCE, as well as the targets for each measure based on that difference and the core PCE target of 2 percent. The rightmost section of the table reports the means, medians, and 25th and 75th percentiles of the one-month growth rates of each one of the measures.
How do I navigate through the Underlying Inflation Dashboard?
Click on the name of a data series in the table to view a time-series line graph and a link to the data source.
What is the data frequency, and how often are data updated?
All nine data series in the dashboard are monthly. We update the dashboard twice a month, after the release of CPI inflation data (usually toward the end of the first half of the month) and after the release of the Personal Income and Outlays report. We post the date of the last update in the top right corner of the Underlying Inflation Dashboard's home page.
Do I need permission to copy the dashboard charts for use elsewhere?
Where can I find the underlying data for a given data series?
Click on the source line at the bottom of any historical line graph to navigate to the source's web page.
I have a question or suggestion about the Inflation Dashboard. Whom should I contact?
We welcome feedback about the dashboard. Please click here to share your thoughts.
- Atlanta Fed Sticky-Price CPI
- Atlanta Fed Sticky-Price CPI supplemental resource, "Are Some Prices in the CPI More Forward Looking Than Others?"
- Cleveland Fed Median CPI and 16 percent trimmed-mean CPI
- Cleveland Fed supplemental resource, "Measuring Core Inflation"
- Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate
- Dallas Fed supplemental resource, "Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison"
- San Francisco Fed "Cyclical and Acyclical Core PCE Inflation"
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)
- National Bureau of Economic Research, "Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation" (James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, 2019)
Release Date of release Consumer Price Index 1/13/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 1/29/2021 Consumer Price Index 2/10/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 2/26/2021 Consumer Price Index 3/10/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 3/26/2021 Consumer Price Index 4/13/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 4/30/2021 Consumer Price Index 5/12/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 5/28/2021 Consumer Price Index 6/10/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 6/25/2021 Consumer Price Index 7/13/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 7/30/2021 Consumer Price Index 8/11/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 8/27/2021 Consumer Price Index 9/14/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 10/1/2021 Consumer Price Index 10/13/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 10/29/2021 Consumer Price Index 11/10/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 11/24/2021 Consumer Price Index 12/10/2021 Personal income and outlays/PCE price index 12/23/2021