Julie Hotchkiss - Research Economist and Senior Adviser

    About Us

Julie HotchkissResearch Economist and Senior Adviser
curriculum vitae :: IDEAS page  :: Google Scholar page
email :: 404-498-8198

To interview economists, press should contact Public Affairs at 470-249-8348.

"Millennials: Maligned or Miscreants" Presidential Address at the 91st Southern Economic Association Annual meeting, Houston, TX (November 2021). (Presentation  | Video )

                        Biography
Working Papers
Other Fed Work

                        Biography
Julie Hotchkiss is a research economist and senior adviser on the applied microeconomics team in the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her major fields of study are earnings and employment differentials across different groups of workers, variations in employment and earnings across time, and policy implications of changes in labor supply. She also contributes to the Atlanta Fed's Policy Hub publications, which provide commentary on economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy.

Dr. Hotchkiss also serves as the executive director of the Atlanta Research Data Center (ARDC). The ARDC is in a secure physical location, housed in the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, where researchers can access nonpublic census data and data from other agencies. Nine regional research institutions support the ARDC. The ARDC is part of the Federal Statistical RDC Network.

Prior to joining the Bank in 2003, Dr. Hotchkiss was professor of economics at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. She began teaching as a senior associate and assistant professor of economics at the Policy Research Center at Georgia State University in 1989. She maintains an appointment as adjunct professor of economics in the Andrew Young School at Georgia State.

Dr. Hotchkiss has published her research in various journals, including Applied Economics, the Review of Economics and Statistics, and the American Economic Review. She is a member of the American Economic Association, the Southern Economic Association, the Society of Labor Economists, the Labor and Employment Relations Association, and the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession. She has served as a coeditor for the Southern Economic Journal and the Eastern Economic Journal; on the board of the Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession; and as a trustee, vice president, and president of the Southern Economic Association.

A native of Los Angeles, Dr. Hotchkiss received bachelor of arts degrees in economics and French from Willamette University. She earned her master's and doctoral degrees in economics at Cornell University.
Working PapersAtlanta Fed Working Papers20212021-18

Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Labor Supply and Welfare of Married Households

Julie L. Hotchkiss, Robert E. Moore, and Fernando Rios-Avila

June 2021

Abstract | Full text 
20202020-11

The Dynamics of the Smoking Wage Penalty

Michael E. Darden, Julie L. Hotchkiss, and M. Melinda Pitts

July 2020

Abstract | Full text 
2020-10

Decomposing Outcome Differences between HBCU and Non-HBCU Institutions

Mels de Zeeuw, Sameera Fazili, and Julie L. Hotchkiss

July 2020

Abstract | Full text 
20192019-1

Migration Constraints and Disparate Responses to Changing Job Opportunities

Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. Hotchkiss

February 2019

Abstract | Full text 
20182018-5

In-migration and Dilution of Community Social Capital

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Anil Rupasingha

July 2018

Abstract | Full text 
2018-3

Individual Social Capital and Migration

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Anil Rupasingha

March 2018

Abstract | Full text 
2018-1c

Some Like It Hot: Assessing Longer-Term Labor Market Benefits from a High-Pressure Economy

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Robert E. Moore

January 2018 (Revised October 2018 and December 2020)

Abstract | Full text 
20172017-7a

Family Welfare and the Cost of Unemployment

Julie L. Hotchkiss, Robert E. Moore, and Fernando Rios-Avila

September 2017 (Revised July 2019)

Abstract | Full text 
20162016-12

Wage Determination in Social Occupations: The Role of Individual Social Capital

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Anil Rupasingha

November 2016

Abstract | Full text 
20152015-10

The Impact on Employment and Hours of Allowing Sunday Alcohol Sales in Georgia

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Yanling Qi

November 2015

Abstract | Full text 
20142014-26a

A Tale of Two Decades: Relative Intra-family Earning Capacity and Changes in Family Welfare over Time

Julie L. Hotchkiss, Robert E. Moore, Fernando Rios-Avila, and Melissa R. Trussell

(Revised) November 2015

Abstract | Full text 
2014-23

Impact of First-Birth Career Interruption on Earnings: Evidence from Administrative Data

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and Mary Beth Walker

November 2014

Abstract | Full text 
2014-10

Family Welfare and the Great Recession

Julie L. Hotchkiss, Robert E. Moore, and Fernando Rios-Avila

August 2014

Abstract | Full text 
2014-8

Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength

Julie L. Hotchkiss

August 2014

Abstract | Full text 
20132013-3

Even One Is Too Much: The Economic Consequences of Being a Smoker

Julie L. Hotchkiss and M. Melinda Pitts

July 2013

Abstract | Full text 
20122012-10

A Closer Look at Nonparticipants During and After the Great Recession

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and Fernando Rios-Avila

August 2012

Abstract | Full text 
2012-04

The Wage Impact of Undocumented Workers

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and Fernando Rios-Avila

March 2012

Abstract | Full text 
2012-02a

Does Employing Undocumented Workers Give Firms a Competitive Advantage?

J. David Brown, Julie L. Hotchkiss, and Myriam Quispe-Agnoli

November 2012 (revised)

Abstract | Full text 
20102010-12

Decomposing the Education Wage Gap: Everything but the Kitchen Sink

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Menbere Shiferaw

August 2010

Abstract | Full text 
2010-02

Assessing the Impact of Education and Marriage on Labor Market Exit Decisions of Women

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and Mary Beth Walker

February 2010

Abstract | Full text 
20092009-14d

Employer Monopsony Power in the Labor Market for Undocumented Workers

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Myriam Quispe-Agnoli

March 2012 (revised)

Abstract | Full text 
2009-06a

Decomposing Changes in the Aggregate Labor Force Participation Rate

Julie L. Hotchkiss

July 2009 (revised)

Abstract | Full text 
20082008-28

Undocumented Worker Employment and Firm Survivability

J. David Brown, Julie L. Hotchkiss, and Myriam Quispe-Agnoli

December 2008

Abstract | Full text 
2008-24

Elimination of Gender-Related Employment Disparities through Statistical Process Control

Mary E. Graham and Julie L. Hotchkiss

October 2008

Abstract | Full text 
2008-08

Working with Children? The Probability of Mothers Exiting the Workforce at Time of Birth

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and Mary Beth Walker

February 2008

Abstract | Full text  
2008-07c

The Labor Market Experience and Impact of Undocumented Workers

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Myriam Quispe-Agnoli

June 2008 (revised)

Abstract | Full text 
20072007-27

Assessing the Welfare Impact of the 2001 Tax Reform on Dual-Earner Families

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Robert E. Moore

December 2007

Abstract | Full text 
2007-16

Evidence of Demand Factors in the Determination of the Labor Market Intermittency Penalty

Julie L. Hotchkiss and M. Melinda Pitts

July 2007

Abstract | Full text 
2007-01

The Role of Labor Market Intermittency in Explaining Gender Wage Differentials

Julie L. Hotchkiss and M. Melinda Pitts

February 2007

Abstract | Full text 

Published in American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
20062006-08

Asymmetric Labor Force Participation Decisions over the Business Cycle: Evidence from U.S. Microdata

Julie L. Hotchkiss and John C. Robertson

July 2006

Abstract | Full text 
2006-07

Welfare Recipiency, Job Separation Outcomes, and Postseparation Earnings: Insight from Linked Personnel and State Administrative Data

Jill Marie Gunderson and Julie L. Hotchkiss

May 2006

Abstract | Full text 

Published in Contemporary Economic Policy
2006-01

The Push-Pull Effects of the Information Technology Boom and Bust: Insight from Matched Employer-Employee Data

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson

February 2006

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Economic Development Quarterly
20052005-22

Freshman Learning Communities, College Performance, and Retention

Julie L. Hotchkiss, Robert E. Moore, and M. Melinda Pitts

September 2005

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Education Economics
2005-18

What's Up with the Decline in Female Labor Force Participation?

Julie L. Hotchkiss

August 2005

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review as "Changes in Behavioral and Characteristic Determination of Female Labor Force Participation"
2005-11

Earnings on the Information Technology Rollercoaster: Insight from Matched Employer-Employee Data

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson

June 2005

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Southern Economic Journal
20042004-25

Employment Growth and Labor Force Participation: How Many Jobs Are Enough?

Julie L. Hotchkiss

October 2004

Abstract | Full text 

Published in Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review
2004-19

Wage Gains among Job Changers across the Business Cycle: Insight from State Administrative Data

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson

August 2004

Abstract | Full text 
2004-16a

The Impact of 9/11 on Hours of Work in the United States

Julie L. Hotchkiss and Olga Pavlova

September 2004 (revised)

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Applied Economics Letters
2004-12

Job Separation Behavior of Welfare Recipients: Results from a Unique Case Study

Jill Marie Gunderson and Julie L. Hotchkiss

May 2004

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Social Service Review
20032003-38

The Ups and Downs of Jobs in Georgia: What Can We Learn about Employment Growth from State Administrative Data?

Julie L. Hotchkiss, M. Melinda Pitts, and John C. Robertson

December 2003

Abstract | Full text 
2003-33

Female Labor Force Intermittency and Current Earnings: A Switching Regression Model with Unknown Sample Selection

Julie L. Hotchkiss and M. Melinda Pitts

December 2003

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Applied Economics
2003-11

Which Industries Are the Best Employers for Women? An Application of a New Equal Employment Opportunity Index

Mary E. Graham and Julie Hotchkiss

July 2003

Abstract | Full text  

Published in Applied Economics
Other Fed WorkArticles2022M. Melinda Pitts, Julie L. Hotchkiss, Chris Cunningham, and Roozbeh Hosseini. "Labor Supply, Wages, and Inequality Conference: Day 1 Overview" Policy Hub: Macroblog. November 30, 2022.
Julie L. Hotchkiss "Will Wage Growth Alone Get Workers Back Into the Labor Market? Not Likely." Policy Hub (2022-1).

Abstract | Full text 
2021Julie L. Hotchkiss "Wage Pressures in the Labor Market: What Do They Say?" Policy Hub (2021-5).

Abstract | Full text 
Julie L. Hotchkiss "Will COVID-19 Erase Black Workers' Labor Market Gains?" Policy Hub (2021-2).

Abstract | Full text 
2020Michael E. Darden, Julie L. Hotchkiss, and M. Melinda Pitts "Where There's Smoke...: The Wage Impact of Smoking." Policy Hub (2020-11).

Abstract | Full text 
Kalee E. Burns and Julie L. Hotchkiss "Mismatch of Jobs and People: Do Migration Constraints Put Racial Minorities at a Disadvantage?." Policy Hub (2020-6).

Abstract | Full text 
2012Julie L. Hotchkiss. "A Brewing Battle? A Review of The Coming Jobs War ." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2012 Q2).
2011Julie L. Hotchkiss and Menbere Shiferaw."Decomposing the Education Wage Gap: Everything but the Kitchen Sink." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (2011 No4).
2009Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Changes in the Aggregate Labor Force Participation Rate." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review
(2009 Q4).
Julie L. Hotchkiss and Menbere Shiferaw. "Econ 101: What's in a name?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2009 Q1).
2007William R. Smith and Julie L. Hotchkiss. "After the Boom, Housing Affordability a Growing Challenge." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2007 Q1).
2006Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Changes in Behavioral and Characteristic Determination of Female Labor Force Participation, 1975–2005" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Economic Review (2006 Q2).
2005Jason DeBacker, Julie Hotchkiss, Melinda Pitts, and John Robertson. "It's Who You Are and What You Do: Explaining the IT Industry Wage Premium" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2005 Q3).
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Employment Growth and Labor Force Participation: How Many Jobs Are Enough?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review (2005 Q1).
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Economics 101: Demand and Supply." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2005 Q1).
2004Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Labor Market Lessons from Georgia's Temp Workers." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2004 Q2).
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Review of Losing Work, Moving On: International Perspectives on Worker Displacement by Peter J. Kuhn." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2004 Q2).
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Growing Part-Time Employment among Disabled Workers: Marginalization or Opportunity?" Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Economic Review (2004 Q3).
Paper Series2020
Feiveson, Laura; Nils Goernemann; Julie Hotchkiss; Karl Mertens; and Jae Sim. "Distributional Considerations for Monetary Policy Strategy." Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series (August 2020).
Blog Posts2017Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Slide into the Economic Driver's Seat with the Labor Market Sliders." macroblog. May 5, 2017.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Does a High-Pressure Labor Market Bring Long-Term Benefits?." macroblog. February 13, 2017.
2016Rebekah Durham, Julie L. Hotchkiss, and Melinda Pitts. "How Will Employers Respond to New Overtime Regulations?." macroblog. July 15, 2016.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "What Occupational Projections Say about Entry-Level Skill Demand," macroblog. January 7, 2016.
2015Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Should We Be Concerned about Declines in Labor Force Growth?" macroblog. October 19, 2015.
Julie L. Hotchkiss and Christopher J. Macpherson. "Falling Job Tenure: It's Not Just about Millennials." macroblog. June 8, 2015.
2014Julie L. Hotchkiss. "And the Winner Is...Full-time Jobs!." macroblog. November 24, 2014.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "The Implications of Flat or Declining Real Wages for Inequality." macroblog. June 30, 2014.
2013Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Atlanta Fed's Jobs Calculator Drills Down to the State." macroblog. November 14, 2013.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Behavior's Place in the Labor Force Participation Rate Debate." macroblog. May 10, 2013.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Building a Better Jobs Calculator: Choose Your Own Payroll/Household Employment Ratio." macroblog. May 3, 2013.
2012Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Labor force nonparticipants: So what are they doing?." macroblog. May 11, 2012.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "What If...? Looking Beyond this Month's Jobs Numbers." macroblog. March 9, 2012.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "How Many Jobs Does It Take? Introducing the Atlanta Fed's Jobs Calculator." macroblog. March 2, 2012.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Employment: Some Good News, Some Bad News." macroblog. February 3, 2012.
2009Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Another Side of the Administration's Tax Plan." macroblog. March 11, 2009.
2008Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Higher Unemployment: Labor Force Effects versus Job Loss Effects." macroblog. December 19, 2008.
Podcast Episodes 2019Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Under Pressure: The Pluses and Minuses of a Hot Economy." Economy Matters podcast. March 28, 2019.
2018Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Where We Live: Social Capital and Migration." Economy Matters podcast. June 28, 2018.
Julie L. Hotchkiss (interviewer) and Ran Abramitzky. "Immigration in the United States: A Historical Perspective." Economy Matters podcast. May 24, 2018.
2017Julie L. Hotchkiss. "A Discussion of Unemployment's Impact on Family Welfare." Economy Matters podcast. October 26, 2017.
2016Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Coming to Our Census: A Look at the Atlanta Fed's Research Data Center." Economy Matters podcast. July 22, 2016.
2011Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Surveying the National Economy." Economy Development podcast. December 19, 2011.
2010Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Surveying the National Economy." Economy Development podcast. December 29, 2010.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Education Wage Gap." Research Insights podcast. September 7, 2010.
Julie L. Hotchkiss. "Examining JOLTS." Economy Development podcast. March 29, 2010.