Patrick HigginsPolicy Adviser and Economist
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Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed's weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcasting" forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time. His research interests include macroeconomics, econometrics, and forecasting. He was promoted to senior economist in 2013. He also contributes to the Atlanta Fed's macroblog, which provides commentary on economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy.
Prior to joining the Atlanta Fed as an economist in 2007, Higgins spent seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. There, he served as a research assistant and economic analyst.
Higgins's work has appeared in the International Journal of Finance & Economics, as well as the Cleveland Fed's Economic Commentary. He is a member of the National Association for Business Economics.
A native of Columbus, Ohio, Higgins earned a bachelor's degree in economics and mathematics from Oberlin College.
Atlanta Fed Working Papers
Monetary Stimulus amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
Kaiji Chen, Haoyu Gao, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
August 2020 (Revised July 2022)
Abstract | Full text
Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?
David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Patrick Higgins, Darryl Koehler, Laurence Kotlikoff, Ellyn Terry, and Victor Ye
Abstract | Full text (755 KB)
Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Abstract | Full text (518 KB)
Other Fed Work
Pat Higgins and Austin McTier. "An Evaluation of GDP Nowcasts during the Pandemic" Policy Hub: Macroblog. May 19, 2022.
Pat Higgins. "Compositional Distortions to a Measure of Wage Growth during the Pandemic" Policy Hub: Macroblog. November 10, 2021.
Pat Higgins. "How Has GDPNow Performed during the Pandemic?" Policy Hub: Macroblog. May 6, 2021.
Patrick Higgins. "GDP Growth, the Unemployment Rate, and Okun's Law ." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2011 Q2).
John B. Carlson, Ben Craig, Patrick Higgins, and William R. Melick. "FOMC Communications and the Predictability of Near-Term Policy Decisions." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, June 6, 2006.
Abstract | Full text (159 KB)
Patrick Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "Nondeliverable Forwards: Can We Tell Where the Renminbi Is Headed?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, September 1, 2005.
Abstract | Full text (144 KB)
Patrick Higgins. "Challenges in Nowcasting GDP Growth," macroblog. May 12, 2020.
Patrick Higgins. "Is There a Taylor Rule for All Seasons?," macroblog. January 8, 2020.
Alan Auerbach, Darryl Koehler, Michael Leiseca, Laurence Kotlikoff, Victor Ye, David Altig, Patrick Higgins, and Ellyn Terry. "The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, SALT, and the Blue State Blues: It's All Relative," macroblog. June 7, 2019.
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?." macroblog. February 13, 2018.
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow's Second Quarter Forecast: Is It Too High?." macroblog. May 22, 2017.
Patrick Higgins. "Net Exports Continue to Bedevil GDPNow." macroblog. February 7, 2017.
Patrick Higgins. "Using Judgment in Forecasting: Does It Matter?." macroblog. December 5, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "The Price Isn't Right: On GDPNow's Third Quarter Miss." macroblog. November 7, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Introducing the Atlanta Fed's Taylor Rule Utility." macroblog. September 8, 2016.
Dave Altig and Patrick Higgins. "How Good Is The Employment Trend? Decide for Yourself." macroblog. July 15, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "When It Rains, It Pours." macroblog. July 6, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Can Two Wrongs Make a Right?." macroblog. May 23, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow and Then." macroblog. May 16, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Introducing the Refined Labor Market Spider Chart." macroblog. February 5, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "5-Year Deflation Probability Moves Off Zero." macroblog. September 4, 2015.
Patrick Higgins. "Is Measurement Error a Likely Explanation for the Lack of Productivity Growth in 2014?." macroblog. April 6, 2015.
Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha. "Examining China's Economy: A Conversation with Atlanta Fed Researchers." Economy Matters podcast. September 22, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Going Inside GDPNow." Economy Matters podcast. January 14, 2016.