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The commentaries for the 75 most recent GDPNow updates are below, starting with the latest estimate.

August 2, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.3 percent on August 2, up from 6.1 percent on July 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent, and the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 29.4 percent to 28.0 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 30, 2021

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 6.1 percent on July 30. The initial estimate of second-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on July 29 was 6.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point above the final GDPNow model nowcast released on July 28.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, August 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 28, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 6.4 percent on July 28, down from 7.4 percent on July 27. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.8 percent to -2.4 percent.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the second quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the third quarter of 2021 will be, at the earliest, on Friday, July 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.4 percent on July 27, down from 7.6 percent on July 20. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.9 percent to 2.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, July 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 20, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.6 percent on July 20, up from 7.5 percent on July 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -8.7 percent to -8.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.5 percent on July 16, down from 7.9 percent on July 9. After this week’s releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 5.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, to 3.7 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, July 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 9, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent on July 9, up from 7.8 percent on July 2. After this week’s releases from the Institute for Supply Management and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.7 percent to 5.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 2, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.8 percent on July 2, down from 8.6 percent on July 1. After this morning's releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 11.3 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively, to 10.4 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

July 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 8.6 percent on July 1, up from 8.3 percent on June 25. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 10.7 percent to 11.3 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.8 percent to 6.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, July 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 25, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on June 25, down from 9.7 percent on June 24. After this morning’s releases from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 13.1 percent to 6.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, July 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 24, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.7 percent on June 24, down from 10.3 percent on June 16. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 16.6 percent to 13.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.10 percentage points to -1.06 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.3 percent on June 16, down from 10.5 percent on June 15. After this morning's new residential construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s U.S. Import Export Price Indexes release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.3 percent to -1.9 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.04 percentage points to -1.10 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, June 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 15, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.5 percent on June 15, up from 9.3 percent on June 9. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 9.0 percent to 11.1 percent was partly offset by decreases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and second-quarter real government spending growth from 18.1 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, to 17.6 percent and 5.1 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 9, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.3 percent on June 9, down from 9.4 percent on June 8. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 18.7 percent to 18.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 8, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.4 percent on June 8, down from 10.3 percent on June 1. After last week's GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 9.5 percent and 22.0 percent, respectively, to 9.0 percent and 18.7 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of second-quarter real government spending growth from 5.3 percent to 5.7 percent. Also, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.92 percentage points to -1.04 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, June 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

June 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.3 percent on June 1, up from 9.3 percent on May 28. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.6 percent and 20.7 percent, respectively, to 9.5 percent and 22.0 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 28, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.3 percent on May 28, up from 9.1 percent on May 27. After this morning’s releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 25.1 percent to 20.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.68 percentage points to -0.90 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, June 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 9.1 percent on May 27, down from 10.1 percent on May 18. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 29.9 percent to 25.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.52 percentage points to -1.68 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 18, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.1 percent on May 18, down from 10.5 percent on May 14. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 19.2 percent to 10.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, May 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 14, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.5 percent on May 14, down from 11.0 percent on May 7. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 10.5 percent to 8.6 percent was partly offset by increases in second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and second-quarter real government spending growth from 27.5 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, to 32.5 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 7, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 11.0 percent on May 7, down from 13.6 percent on May 4. After Tuesday’s GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and second-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 12.5 percent, 33.5 percent, and 5.5 percent, respectively, to 10.5 percent, 27.5 percent, and 3.9 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 14. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 4, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 13.6 percent on May 4, up from 13.2 percent on May 3. After this morning's releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 12.1 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively, to 12.5 percent and 33.5 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, May 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

May 3, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 13.2 percent on May 3, up from 10.4 percent on April 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 8.7 percent and 28.7 percent, respectively, to 12.1 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.46 percentage points to -1.52 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, May 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 30, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 10.4 percent on April 30. The initial estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on April 29 was 6.4 percent, 1.5 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on April 28.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 3. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 28, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 7.9 percent on April 28, down from 8.2 percent on April 26. After this morning’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent to 1.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.27 percentage points to -1.42 percentage points.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the first quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the second quarter of 2021 will be on Friday, April 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 26, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.2 percent on April 26, down from 8.3 percent on April 16. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.8 percent to 2.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on April 16, unchanged from April 15 after rounding. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 10.6 percent to 10.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, April 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 15, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on April 15, up from 6.0 percent on April 9. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 7.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively, to 10.5 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.4 percent to 2.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 9, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 9, down from 6.2 percent on April 7. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s report on producer prices from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.90 percentage points to -1.04 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 7, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.2 percent on April 7, up from 6.0 percent on April 1. After last week’s GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real government spending growth from 6.9 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, to 7.2 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 4.6 percent to 4.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, April 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

April 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on April 1, up from 4.7 percent on March 26. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 5.6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, to 6.9 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, April 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 26, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 4.7 percent on March 26, down from 5.4 percent on March 24. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 8.8 percent to 2.4 percent was slightly offset by an increase in first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.8 percent to 5.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.00 percentage points to -1.05 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 24, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.4 percent on March 24, down from 5.7 percent on March 17. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 10.6 percent to 8.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 17, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.7 percent on March 17, down from 5.9 percent on March 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 11.5 percent to 10.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 24. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 16, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.9 percent on March 16, down from 8.4 percent on March 8. After recent releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 7.5 percent and 15.9 percent, respectively, to 4.9 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.10 percentage points to -1.01 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, March 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 8, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.4 percent on March 8, up from 8.3 percent on March 5. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 19.4 percent to 19.6 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, March 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 5, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.3 percent on March 5, down from 10.0 percent on March 1. After Monday's GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 8.8 percent and 18.7 percent, respectively, to 7.5 percent and 15.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.86 percentage points to -1.10 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

March 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 10.0 percent on March 1, up from 8.8 percent on February 26. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and first-quarter real government spending growth increased from 7.7 percent, 17.7 percent, and 6.9 percent, respectively, to 8.8 percent, 18.7 percent, and 9.1 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, March 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 26, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 8.8 percent on February 26, down from 9.6 percent on February 25. After this morning’s releases from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 22.1 percent to 17.7 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.78 percentage points to -0.84 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, March 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 25, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 9.6 percent on February 25, up from 9.5 percent on February 18. After recent releases from the National Association of Realtors, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 21.5 percent to 22.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 26. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 18, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 9.5 percent on February 18, unchanged from February 17 after rounding. After this morning's releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 17.5 percent to 17.4 percent after rounding.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 17, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 9.5 percent on February 17, up from 4.5 percent on February 10. After last week's Monthly Treasury Statement from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service and this morning’s releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.5 percent and 17.4 percent, respectively, to 7.7 percent and 21.5 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, February 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 10, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 4.5 percent on February 10, down from 4.6 percent on February 5. After this morning’s releases of the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 18.2 percent to 17.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 5, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 4.6 percent on February 5, down from 6.0 percent on February 1. After Monday’s GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 2.2 percent and 22.2 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and 18.2 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.61 percentage points to -0.74 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 10. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

February 1, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 6.0 percent on February 1, up from 5.2 percent on January 29. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and first-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.0 percent and 21.7 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 22.2 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, February 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 29, 2021

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2021 is 5.2 percent on January 29. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29 was 4.0 percent, 3.2 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on January 27.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, February 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 27, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.2 percent on January 27, down from 7.5 percent on January 21. After this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 36.2 percent to 33.4 percent.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the first quarter of 2021 will be on Friday, January 29. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 21, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.5 percent on January 21, up from 7.4 percent on January 15. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 29.9 percent to 31.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, January 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 15, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 7.4 percent on January 15, down from 8.7 percent on January 8. After recent data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 5.5 percent to 3.7 percent, while the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 5.4 percent to 5.7 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 21. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 8, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.7 percent on January 8, up from 8.5 percent on January 7. After this morning's releases of the employment situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 5.4 percent and 35.4 percent, respectively, to 5.5 percent and 35.6 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 15. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 7, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.5 percent on January 7, down from 8.9 percent on January 5. After this morning’s releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 37.0 percent to 35.4 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.70 percentage points to -1.79 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, January 8. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 5, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.9 percent on January 5, up from 8.6 percent on January 4. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 5.1 percent and 36.3 percent, respectively, to 5.4 percent and 37.0 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, January 7. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

January 4, 2021

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 8.6 percent on January 4, down from 10.4 percent on December 23. After last week’s Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 46.9 percent to 36.3 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.37 percentage points to -1.69 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, January 5. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 23, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 10.4 percent on December 23, down from 11.1 percent on December 17. After recent data releases by the National Association of Realtors, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 53.8 percent to 46.9 percent, while the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures increased from 4.8 percent to 5.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, January 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.1 percent on December 17, up from 11.0 percent on December 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 31.0 percent to 33.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 23. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 16, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.0 percent on December 16, down from 11.2 on December 9. After recent data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 5.4 percent to 4.7 percent was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 50.3 percent to 53.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, December 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 9, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.2 percent on December 9, unchanged from December 4 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth decreased from 4.80 percentage points to 4.79 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 4, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.2 percent on December 4, up from 11.1 percent on December 1. After recent releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Institute for Supply Management, increases in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 46.6 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively, to 50.5 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively, were slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 6.1 percent to 5.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, December 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

December 1, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.1 percent on December 1, up from 11.0 percent on November 25. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government spending growth from 4.4 percent to 4.9 percent was slightly offset by decreases in the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.2 percent and 46.7 percent, respectively, to 6.1 percent and 46.6 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 25, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 11.0 percent on November 25, up from 5.6 percent on November 18. After this morning's releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.6 percent and 28.4 percent, respectively, to 6.2 percent and 46.7 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.62 percentage points to -1.36 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, December 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 18, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 5.6 percent on November 18, up from 5.4 percent on November 17. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 19.5 percent to 23.2 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 5.4 percent on November 17, up from 3.5 percent on November 6. After recent data releases from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from -0.4 percent to 2.6 percent was slightly offset by a decrease in the nowcast of real gross private domestic investment growth from 28.8 percent to 27.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 18. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 6, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 3.5 percent on November 6, up from 3.2 percent on November 4. After this morning's releases of the employment situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth increased from 27.4 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively, to 28.8 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, November 17. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 4, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 3.2 percent on November 4, down from 3.4 percent on November 2. After yesterday's and today's data releases by the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real government spending growth decreased from -0.1 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, to -0.4 percent and 4.0 percent, respectively. Also, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 27.0 percent to 27.4 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -1.65 percentage to -1.60 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, November 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

November 2, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 3.4 percent on November 2, up from 2.2 percent on October 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -1.0 percent and 23.8 percent, respectively, to -0.1 percent and 27.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -1.63 percentage points to -1.65 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, November 4. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 30, 2020

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is 2.2 percent on October 30. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 29 was 33.1 percent, 3.9 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 28.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, November 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 28, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 37.0 percent on October 28, up from 36.2 percent on October 27. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real private inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 4.42 percentage points to 5.21 percentage points, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.70 percentage points to -0.74 percentage points.

This is the last GDPNow forecast for the third quarter. The first GDPNow forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 will be on Friday, October 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 27, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 36.2 percent on October 27, up from 35.3 percent on October 20. After recent data releases by the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 47.8 percent to 53.8 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, October 28. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 20, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.3 percent on October 20, up from 35.2 percent on October 16. After last week's Monthly Treasury Statement from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service and this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 46.8 percent to 50.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 27. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 16, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.2 percent on October 16, unchanged from October 9 after rounding. After this week’s data releases by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 48.4 percent to 47.0 percent was offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 37.0 percent to 37.3 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 20. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 9, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.2 percent on October 9, slightly down from 35.3 percent on October 6. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 48.9 percent to 48.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 16. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 6, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 35.3 percent on October 6, up from 34.6 percent on October 1. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real government spending growth increased from 45.1 percent and 17.5 percent, respectively, to 48.9 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.56 percentage points to -0.66 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, October 9. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

October 1, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 34.6 percent on October 1, up from 32.0 percent on September 25. After recent releases from the Institute for Supply Management, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth and third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 38.1 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively, to 45.1 percent and 36.8 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.28 percentage points to -0.56 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, October 6. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 25, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 25, unchanged from September 17 after rounding. After this morning’s manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth from 32.6 to 38.1 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth from 3.11 percentage points to 2.93 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, October 1. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

September 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. After this morning's housing starts report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 39.3 percent to 46.1 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, September 25. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.