Business Inflation Expectations Relatively Unchanged at 2.3 Percent - April 2024
- Inflation expectations: Firms' year-ahead inflation expectations remained relatively unchanged at 2.3 percent, on average.
- Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins "compared to normal" remained relatively unchanged. Year-over-year unit cost growth significantly decreased to 2.6 percent, on average.
- Quarterly question: Firms' sales levels (compared to "normal" unit sales levels) increased to approximately 4.9 percent below normal.
- Special question: Firms were asked about their 12-month realized rate of wage change and their 12-months-ahead expected rate of wage change for both low-skilled jobs and high-skilled jobs. They were also asked about the share of employees using A.I. tools, and the impact of those tools on their productivity. A breakdown of the results can be found in the special questions section.
Click on a marker to view that month's results summary (starting January 2012).
Source: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey
Standard Questions
The questions below are asked each month to assess the firm’s current business environment and inflation expectations.
Question 1. How do your current sales levels compare with sales levels during what you consider to be "normal" times?
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Question 2. How do your current profit margins compare with "normal" times?
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Question 3. Looking back, how do your unit costs compare with this time last year?
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Question 4. Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to unit costs over the next 12 months.
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Rotating Questions
Each question is asked once per quarter in the order indicated below.
Quarterly Question: Looking back, by about what percent did you change prices over the last 12 months? Looking ahead, by about what percent do you expect to change prices over the next 12 months?
Quarterly Question: Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to unit costs per year over the next five to 10 years.
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Quarterly Question: By roughly what percent are your firm's unit sales levels above/below "normal," if at all?
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Discontinued Quarterly Question: Projecting ahead over the next 12 months, how do you think the following five common influences will affect the prices of your products and/or services?
Note: After careful consideration, we have chosen to discontinue the common influences on prices quarter questions in favor of the price change realizations and expectations questions, which we hope will be more useful for policy analysis and in research.
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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Show Diffusion | Show Response Breakdown
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Latest Results as Chart Packs:
The Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) is fielded by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. It was designed, tested and refined by the Atlanta Fed Economic Research Survey Center.
Our monthly Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) Survey goes to about 640 panel members (as of June 2023), who occupy executive and managerial positions at 6th district's firms. We contact panel members each month by email, and they respond via a web-based instrument.
Survey questions pertain to current, past, and future outcomes at the respondent's firm. Our primary objective is to elicit the respondent's subjective forecast distributions over own-firm future unit-cost growth. We gather qualitative information on firms' sales levels and margins on a monthly basis. We include a set of rotating quarterly questions covering firms' longer-run probabilistic unit-cost expectations, quantitative sales gaps, and factors influencing pricing. Our survey also includes space of special questions on timely, policy-relevant topics.
Survey Release Dates
The survey period runs from Monday to Friday, typically at midmonth. Survey release dates are scheduled for the following Wednesday, except in cases where the release would conflict with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) blackout period, which begins at midnight ET the second Saturday before meetings of the FOMC and lasts until midnight ET the day after a meeting ends. In such cases, the release is changed to respect the FOMC's communications guidelines.
2024
January 17
February 21
March 20*
April 17
May 22
June 20*
July 17
August 21
September 18*
October 23
November 20
December 18*
* The posting will not contain a special question.
"Opinion: I'm OK, but Things Are Terrible," New York Times, September 7, 2023.
"Opinion: Core Inflation Is Outdated. Time to Look at Supercore and Other Measures." New York Times, June 16, 2023.
"Why Don't Americans Recognize that Inflation is Down and Incomes Are Up?," Washington Monthly, May 23, 2023.
"Opinion: Which Inflation Measures Matter?," New York Times, April 25, 2023.
To make sound policy decisions in a shifting landscape, our policymakers look to business leaders to learn more about their expectations, the challenges they face, and their overall view of economy. Now more than ever, input from business decision-makers will be key to our understanding of the path forward. We hope you will consider lending your voice to this important work.
If you are interested in joining a diverse group of businesses that provide deeper insight into economic conditions, please complete this form or contact Grace Guynn.