Patrick Higgins
Policy Adviser and Economistemail :: 404-498-7906
To interview economists, press should contact Public Affairs at 470-249-8348.
email :: 404-498-7906
email :: 404-498-7906
Patrick Higgins is a policy adviser and economist on the macroeconomics and monetary policy team in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. He helps develop forecasting models and contributes to the Atlanta Fed's weekly Deflation Probabilities report. Higgins also helped develop the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcasting" forecast to help monitor the state of the economy in real time. His research interests include macroeconomics, econometrics, and forecasting. He was promoted to senior economist in 2013. He also contributes to the Atlanta Fed's macroblog, which provides commentary on economic topics, including monetary policy, macroeconomic developments, and the Southeast economy.
Prior to joining the Atlanta Fed as an economist in 2007, Higgins spent seven years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. There, he served as a research assistant and economic analyst.
Higgins's work has appeared in the International Journal of Finance & Economics, as well as the Cleveland Fed's Economic Commentary. He is a member of the National Association for Business Economics.
A native of Columbus, Ohio, Higgins earned a bachelor's degree in economics and mathematics from Oberlin College.
Atlanta Fed Working Papers
2020
2020-16a
Monetary Stimulus amid the Infrastructure Investment Spree: Evidence from China's Loan-Level Data
Kaiji Chen, Haoyu Gao, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
August 2020 (Revised July 2022)
Abstract | Full text 
2020-6
Cyclical Lending Standards: A Structural Analysis
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, and Tao Zha
May 2020
Abstract | Full text
2019
2019-7
Did the 2017 Tax Reform Discriminate against Blue State Voters?
David Altig, Alan Auerbach, Patrick Higgins, Darryl Koehler, Laurence Kotlikoff, Ellyn Terry, and Victor Ye
April 2019
Abstract | Full text (755 KB)
2016-9a
Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China
Kaiji Chen, Patrick Higgins, Daniel F. Waggoner, and Tao Zha
September 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Abstract | Full text (518 KB)
2016-7
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Patrick Higgins, Tao Zha, and Karen Zhong
July 2016
Abstract | Full text (407 KB)
2014-7
GDPNow: A Model for GDP "Nowcasting"
Patrick Higgins
July 2014
Abstract | Full text (739 KB)
Articles
2022
Pat Higgins and Austin McTier. "An Evaluation of GDP Nowcasts during the Pandemic" Policy Hub: Macroblog. May 19, 2022.
2021
Pat Higgins. "Compositional Distortions to a Measure of Wage Growth during the Pandemic" Policy Hub: Macroblog. November 10, 2021.
Patrick Higgins, "The Phillips Curve during the Pandemic: Bringing Regional Data to Bear." Policy Hub (2021-11).
Abstract | Full text
Pat Higgins. "How Has GDPNow Performed during the Pandemic?" Policy Hub: Macroblog. May 6, 2021.
2011
Patrick Higgins. "GDP Growth, the Unemployment Rate, and Okun's Law ." Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta EconSouth (2011 Q2).
2006
John B. Carlson, Ben Craig, Patrick Higgins, and William R. Melick. "FOMC Communications and the Predictability of Near-Term Policy Decisions." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Economic Commentary, June 6, 2006.
Abstract | Full text (159 KB)
2005
Patrick Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "Nondeliverable Forwards: Can We Tell Where the Renminbi Is Headed?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, September 1, 2005.
Abstract | Full text (144 KB)
Patrick Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "The Chinese Renminbi: What's Real, What's Not" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, August 15, 2005.
Abstract | Full text (138 KB)
2004
Joseph G. Haubrich, Patrick Higgins, and Janet Miller. "Oil Prices: Backward to the Future?" Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, December 1, 2004.
Abstract | Full text (168 KB)
Patrick C. Higgins and Owen F. Humpage. "Walking on a Fence: Brazil's Public-Sector Debt." Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Commentary, February 1, 2004.
Abstract | Full text (285 KB)
Blog Posts
2020
Patrick Higgins. "Challenges in Nowcasting GDP Growth," macroblog. May 12, 2020.
Patrick Higgins. "Is There a Taylor Rule for All Seasons?," macroblog. January 8, 2020.
2019
Alan Auerbach, Darryl Koehler, Michael Leiseca, Laurence Kotlikoff, Victor Ye, David Altig, Patrick Higgins, and Ellyn Terry. "The Tax Cut and Jobs Act, SALT, and the Blue State Blues: It's All Relative," macroblog. June 7, 2019.
2018
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow's Forecast: Why Did It Spike Recently?." macroblog. February 13, 2018.
2017
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow's Second Quarter Forecast: Is It Too High?." macroblog. May 22, 2017.
Patrick Higgins. "Net Exports Continue to Bedevil GDPNow." macroblog. February 7, 2017.
2016
Patrick Higgins. "Using Judgment in Forecasting: Does It Matter?." macroblog. December 5, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "The Price Isn't Right: On GDPNow's Third Quarter Miss." macroblog. November 7, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Introducing the Atlanta Fed's Taylor Rule Utility." macroblog. September 8, 2016.
Dave Altig and Patrick Higgins. "How Good Is The Employment Trend? Decide for Yourself." macroblog. July 15, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "When It Rains, It Pours." macroblog. July 6, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Can Two Wrongs Make a Right?." macroblog. May 23, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "GDPNow and Then." macroblog. May 16, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Introducing the Refined Labor Market Spider Chart." macroblog. February 5, 2016.
2015
Patrick Higgins. "5-Year Deflation Probability Moves Off Zero." macroblog. September 4, 2015.
Patrick Higgins. "Is Measurement Error a Likely Explanation for the Lack of Productivity Growth in 2014?." macroblog. April 6, 2015.
Podcast Episodes 
2023
Jim Cagnina (interviewer) with Patrick Higgins. "NinjaTrader And GDPnow Atlanta On GDP
." NinjaTrader podcast. May 25, 2023.
2022
Patrick Higgins. ""It's a Harder Environment to Forecast In": Discussing the Science of Measuring GDP." Economy Matters podcast. September 8, 2022.
2016
Patrick Higgins and Tao Zha. "Examining China's Economy: A Conversation with Atlanta Fed Researchers." Economy Matters podcast. September 22, 2016.
Patrick Higgins. "Going Inside GDPNow." Economy Matters podcast. January 14, 2016.